New Sultan, New Dawn?

Personal Reflections on the Omani transition of Power and Peace Prospects for Yemen. January 30, 2020.

On the morning of Friday, January 10, 2020, I arrived in Muscat for the first time in hopes of understanding Oman's role in facilitating peace in Yemen's Saudi-Iranian proxy war. A question of contemplation was the issue of succession: which of Sultan Qaboos' cousins would inherit the throne; Shehab, As'ad, or Haitham? Within 24hrs, the question of secession was firmly and smoothly resolved to the surprise of many international spectators, namely that of other Gulf states (chiefly the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia), and the United States of America.

At around 7 pm, Omani officials were urgently called back to Muscat in preparation for the announcement of Sultan's Qaboos' passing, which was withheld from the public until approximately 4 am Saturday, January 11. Within hours, the proceedings that followed played out in a seamless transition. First, the Omani Defense Council assembled, placing the security and safety of Oman's at the forefront through the presence of the defense and military men. Then, the Royal Family Council met at the request of the Defense council to deliberate amongst themselves - the Al-Said family - to select a new Sultan. In an unexpected turn of events, the Royal Family Council immediately opted to resort to the will of Sultan Qaboos - which would have served as the deciding document if the family come to a draw over their selections. In a speedy transition, the Defense Council read the Sultan's will which named Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al-Said as his successor.

By 9 am, a simple burial, composed of an exclusively Omani assembly, was over. Then, the new Sultan took his oath before the Council of Oman, composed of the Shura Council and the State Council. There, he gave a speech reaffirming the continuation of Sultan Qaboos' policies and his commitment to peacemaking in the region.

The selection of Sultan Haitham caught many analysts by surprise as they predicted that As'ad or Shehab had a higher probability of ruling due to their military background. To those who understood the vision of Sultan Qaboos and his commitment to the people of Oman, it was not a surprise that he selected Haitham, a former Minister of Heritage and Culture, and the Sultan's own choice as the head of Oman Vision 2040; which focused on developing Oman's economy. This selection by Sultan Qaboos confirmed to the Omani population that their new leader would work to provide them with a more prosperous future.

The same choice left the Omani public relieved as they placed great trust in Sultan Qaboos' vision for their country. Amongst speaking to the grieving public, it was clear that they supported the Sultan's selection and were greatly relieved at how seamless the transition was. In a sense, proud that their country contained the possibility of disarray and thwarted the meddling of outside interference. Three days of mourning were announced, but these days will not subdue the population's grief. For the next week, I watched as Omanis and ex-pats alike exchanged condolences, many times, in tears in honor of Sultan Qaboos' legacy, and perhaps in fear of an unknown future.

For many Omanis, this transition is unfathomable as it marks the end of 49 years under the reign of Sultan Qaboos, who united all of Oman. About 70% of the population is under the age of 35 and will witness a new Sultan for the first time in their lives. While the Omani community adjusts to the new status quo, the Omani government received international consolation delegations from around the world. From the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, King Salman came in-person to show support. From the United Arab Emirates, six delegations were sent, including one with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed.

In the Gulf, a display of condolences is mandatory between friends. While some analysts may argue that these optics are not very telling of gulf dynamics, it certainly marks a new opportunity for the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to reconnect with the Sultanate of Oman after some brief tensions over Yemen's war. On the same front, several Yemeni delegations arrived, representing all Yemenis factions, including the legitimate government, the Houthis, the separatists (both the Southern Transitional Council and Hirak), the General People's Congress, and Islah.

In the case of Yemen, representatives of various political parties whom I met affirmed Oman's strategic and unique diplomatic position as a peacemaker in the region - citing their role in the past during the GCC brokered Arab Spring transition. In a sense, Oman has not burned any bridges with any Yemeni factions. This has left the country in the perfect position to moderate for peace from within the Arabian Peninsula. Not only do Yemeni actors trust and respect Oman's position, Yemen's well being - and its amicable relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - reflects directly on Oman's national security interests. Oman's role as a facilitator of peace, or better yet as a moderator, will result in a win-win situation for everyone in the region, especially as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates get ready for a political settlement in Yemen.

In the upcoming months, the new Sultan's attention will focus on internal social pressure to renovate and reform Oman's economy. All the while, international actors will expect Oman to continue serving as a neutral backchannel for peace talks between Iran, the KSA, and the USA. Without question, Sultan Qaboos preferred for the new Sultan to focus much of his time on the economy - which includes lowering high rates of unemployment, shifting the economy away from oil resources, and reducing the national budget deficit. This significant undertaking could mean that the Sultan will rely on existing Omani officials to continue their role as "facilitators of peace" in the region.

Aware of the legacy of Sultan Qaboos, Sultan Haitham has yet to make any significant appointments, electing to keep everything as Sultan Qaboos had left it. The new Sultan ordered that pictures of Sultan Qaboos stay in place and to have his portrait added next to it. Moreover, he canceled all honorary titles, such as His Majesty, that are attached to the Sultan's title in all official communications. Small gestures of reform are expected to follow, in slow, yet conscientious Omani fashion.